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Gartner and IDC take both turned in their estimates for how many PCs were sold in Q4 2022, and the data isn't good no matter where you look. While the two companies are characterizing their findings differently — IDC calls its 1.half-dozen% turn down a "stabilization," while Gartner charted a 3.vii% decline compared to Q4 2022 and called it as such — neither has much in the manner of positive forecasting to soften their conclusions.

The numbers: 72.six 1000000 PCs were sold in Q4 2022 and 269.7 1000000 PCs were sold throughout the year, Gartner reports. That'southward a 6.2% decline compared to 2022, and the fifth straight year of decline. Full PC sales in 2022, for comparison, were 365 million units, or 1.35x higher than they are today. 269.7 meg PCs is all the same a huge number of computers, merely wiping out nearly 100 million unit of measurement shipments in just 5 years isn't adept for whatsoever market.

"Stagnation in the PC market connected into the fourth quarter of 2022 as holiday sales were mostly weak due to the fundamental alter in PC buying behavior," said Mikako Kitagawa, master analyst at Gartner. "The broad PC marketplace has been static as technology improvements have non been sufficient to drive real marketplace growth. There take been innovative form factors like 2-in-1s and sparse and light notebooks, as well as engineering improvements, such as longer battery life. This end of the market has grown fast, led past engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market place driven by PC enthusiasts is not big plenty to drive overall marketplace growth."

"There is the other side of the PC market, where PCs are infrequently used," Kitagawa continued. "Consumers in this segment have high dependency on smartphones, so they stretch PC life cycles longer. This side of the market is much bigger than the PC enthusiast segment; thus, steep declines in the exceptional PC user market place offset the fast growth of the PC enthusiast marketplace."

According to Gartner, Lenovo led in overall unit shipments, followed by HP and Dell. Lenovo, HP, Dell, and Apple tree all gained market share in 2022 while Asus and Acer both lost share. This was particularly bruising for Asus, whose Q4 2022 shipments declined by viii.v% compared to the same period a year earlier. According to Gartner, Asus' United states of america shipments fell a staggering 48% in Q4 2022 compared to the same flow in 2022. The arrangement expects the PC industry to decline for at least the side by side twelvemonth.

Meanwhile, Q4 sales brutal just 1.five% year-on-year, with annual PC shipments declining 5.7%, IDC reports. Where Gartner expects to see stagnation and falling sales, still, IDC is somewhat more positive.

"The 4th quarter results reinforce our expectations for market stabilization, and even some recovery," said Loren Loverde, vice president, Personal Calculating Trackers & Forecasting. "The contraction in traditional PC shipments experienced over the past five years finally appears to be giving way equally users movement to update systems. Nosotros have a expert opportunity for traditional PC growth in commercial markets, while the consumer segment should as well meliorate as information technology feels less pressure from slowing phone and tablet markets."

"The U.S. PC market was able to pull off a strong last quarter of the year with impressive growth in the retail PC segment that surpassed expectations," said Neha Mahajan, senior research annotator, Devices & Displays. "Although this might point regained consumer confidence in the PC marketplace, with about of the sales existence driven by aggressive promotions in the vacation season, it needs to exist seen how much of the real demand is carried forrad in the coming quarters."

IDC-Graph

Data and graph by IDC

Nosotros've been wondering if Apple'south Mac shipments took a hit on the back of all the negative printing the MacBook Pro accrued in Q4. Only so far the answer seems to be "no." IDC thinks Apple tree shipped 0.1% fewer units in Q4 2022 compared with Q4 2022, only that's a blip on the overall radar. It'due south still possible that the MacBook Pro will send in lower numbers over the long run after the faithful snapped them up in Q4, just so far Apple'due south determination to dump backwards compatibility (sans dongles) doesn't seem to take toll them whatever sales.

Every bit for which firm is more than probable to be right about the shape of the PC market in 2022, frankly I agree more with Gartner, and its predictions of at least one more year of stagnation or contraction. For the past few years, companies like Intel take confidently talked near upgrade cycles that would push button consumers to begin replacing their PC hardware. In the starting time, this was a 2-3 year wheel. It eventually became 4-5 years, then 5-six. I've seen companies talk about eight-year upgrade cycles. The arguments, at this indicate, band hollow.

This is non to suggest that the PC industry will pass up forever. Rather, it suggests that the PC market place is bifurcating into multiple distinct groups. First, you lot take power users, whether that means high-end gaming enthusiast or professional workstation client. Next, you have customers who prioritize gains in battery life or weight reductions. These two groups are both concerned with functioning, but they define the term differently and care about different features every bit a result.

Finally, you lot've got customers who increasingly treat their personal estimator as if it's on a similar replacement wheel to their fridge or washing machine. Nobody runs out and buys a washing auto because the 2022 models have amazing killer features, nobody cares nearly smart toasters, and the ugly truth is, the mass market place doesn't care much near PC hardware, either. Features similar SSDs or improved 4K playback back up will concenter people on the edges. But very few people in the mass marketplace are rushing out to buy new hardware because Intel, AMD, or Asus added those capabilities to existing products.

Ironically, it may be AMD that is all-time positioned to affect PC sales in 2022. AMD'southward Ryzen processor is generally expected to exist far more competitive with Intel products than whatsoever scrap the company has launched in the past iv years. We've already probable seen Intel arrange its product stack in response, and Ryzen hasn't even launched yet. Better contest from AMD will likely drive some price cuts and new production introductions from Intel, and that, in turn, could spur consumer adoption of new chips from both companies. After five years of declines, even a apartment year would exist a win for the battered PC manufacture.